The U.S. dollar is gaining strength internationally, but is this something that can continue over the coming week? There are a lot of events coming up that will influence the price of the dollar, and having a grasp on how these will potentially play out–and what that means for your trading–is going to give you an advantage over the coming days. When you put it in the context of a lesser traded currency, such as the Australian dollar, you can get a better idea of what to do as one currency has a huge amount of volume behind it while the other doesn’t have the same strength. This kind of situation makes things slightly easier to predict with accuracy.
First, let’s look at what the U.S. dollar is doing. Thanks to a difficult and uncertain international economy over the last several months, the greenback has become the strongest currency in the world. The euro has been weakened, and while signs of recovery are there, nothing has really taken hold yet. The U.S. dollar is by far the most stable of the major currencies, and it is reflected in lesser currencies like the AUD.
Second, the strong USD means that there is more buying power internationally, and much of that money is going into Australian gold. During the second quarter of 2015, Australian production rose by about 4 percent. As you might know, there is a strong correlation between the price of gold and the strength of the AUD, and while it’s not an immediate connection, as gold is produced and sold, there is a strong chance that the Australian dollar will be bolstered by this. This hasn’t helped a lot lately versus the USD, but when compared to other pairs, the AUD is doing better. Over the course of five days, the EUR/AUD pair has fallen by almost 900 pips in the AUD’s favor. Over the same period of time against the GBP, the AUD has gone up by about 700 pips.
This devaluation against the USD though, has helped Australian miners and that will help the AUD eventually, so this is something to be on the lookout for as time goes by. While the Aussie is doing well against some of the other major currencies as we saw above, this momentum is likely to continue as gold gets stronger.
This knowledge will help you to formulate a long term strategy while you navigate the short term. Some traders find it helpful to use different trading methods for each timeframe to help them manage their different outlooks. For example, one easy to manage strategy involves a long term binary options approach with options that favor the AUD over other currencies while short term trades are conducted through a Forex broker. Many brokers allow you to take out binary options that expire at the end of the calendar year, which is a very easy date to remember, and because it’s still a few months away, it smooths out the bumps that might occur over the short term–all of which will be accounted for in your other trading. How you decide to approach this is up to you, of course, but this method has been proven to be effective if you wish to pursue it.
The USD is still strong, though. It has taken away a lot of the allure of gold and of other currencies, but this will not last forever. When you look at gold in comparison to other currencies, it is much stronger than it is in the U.S., and it’s only a matter of time until this catches up to the dollar. Keep this in mind as well when formulating long term strategies.